Five men’s story lines at the BNP Paribas Open

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1. What’s up with Roger?

The last time anyone saw living legend Roger Federer, he was on the court crying after his hard-fought loss in the Australian Open final to Rafael Nadal.

Federer has said he has been nursing a back injury, but some have to wonder how emotionally draining that loss was. It was the first time Federer had lost a hard-court major to Nadal, and he was denied tying Pete Sampras’ all-time record of 14 Grand Slam singles titles. With the Australian Open loss, Federer has lost to Nadal on all three surfaces in the last year. The BNP Paribas, which Federer won three consecutive times from 2004-06, could give people an idea if Federer can continue to dominate the men’s tour, or if this is the start of the decline.

2. Will Novak Djokovic repeat?

Well, if you judge the Serbian superstar on last weekend’s Davis Cup, it might seem unlikely as Djokovic was dominated by Rafael Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-1. Last year, Djokovic was riding a wave of confidence after winning his first major, the Australian Open. Since then, Djokovic has not reached another Grand Slam final, but is solidly entrenched in the No. 3 ranking behind Federer and Nadal. And Indian Wells has been good for Djokovic, who has reached the finals the past two years.

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3. Can Rafael Nadal win the BNP Paribas again?

Of course. Nadal is the reigning Australian Open champion and he had won at Indian Wells in 2007. The hard courts at the BNP Paribas play typically slower than most hard courts, which suits Nadal. And with Nadal’s dominating victory over Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last weekend and Federer’s lack of activity; it looks like Nadal is creating distance between himself and the rest of the tour. But winning on American hard courts might be an extra incentive for Nadal this year. The one major he hasn’t won in his career is the U.S. Open.

4. Which American has the best chance to win?

Strangely enough, his name isn’t Andy Roddick. Roddick is No. 7 in the world and has been the undisputed best American player for a long time. But in the last three years, James Blake (2006) and Mardy Fish (2008) have reached the finals and Roddick has never played for the Indian Wells title. However, Roddick has played well reaching the two semifinals and the quarterfinals two other times. Roddick also comes into Indian Wells a lean, mean fighting machine thanks to his work with new coach Larry Stefanki, the 1985 winner of this tournament. However, Roddick, who has been engaged for a year to swimsuit model Brooklyn Decker, had said in the past that he could get married in the spring. So if his mind is on is on the wedding guest list rather than groundstrokes, he could be in trouble.

5. Will Andy Murray move into elite status?

Two years ago, Murray and Djokovic came into Indian Wells as the most promising young players in the game. Djokovic would go on to reach the finals at Indian Wells that year and by the following year, the Serbian star would win the Australian Open. Murray’s ascent has been slowed by injuries, but he appeared on the brink when he reached the U.S. Open finals last fall. Murray also has wins against Federer and Nadal, and was even considered a favorite at this year’s Australian Open. But to get to the level of a Federer, Nadal and a Djokovic, it requires sustained excellence. Murray is close and doing well at the BNP Paribas Open will go a long ways beefing up his resume.

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